May 15, 2022 8:19 am
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #12 2022

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #15 2022

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #15 2022

Posted on 14 April 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Let’s do it again, only not the bad part

“Hard won experience” is another way of describing our collision of early enthusiasm and thoughtless habituation around fossil hydrocarbon fuels and— after a little over 200 years— finally thinking it all through. We can also be excused for our early ignorance about the ultimate effects of “only a trace gas,” although that ticket has expired.

Now that we’re fully informed about the Janus-like nature of fossil hydrocarbon fuels and have seen how the ugly side of this character is treating our space, naturally we’re moving on to better alternatives. A particularly attractive substitute for fossil hydocarbon fuels for certain demanding applications such as aviation or road transport is hydrogen. Given that it leaves behind water as the sole byproduct of its use as an energy storage component, hydrogen is extremely appealing from the perspective of not being converted into either acutely toxic or subtly insidious compounds when it’s routinely expended as fuel. 

Now that we’re engaged in a makeover of our energy behavior, can we do better the second time around in terms of avoiding unintended consequences? Yes, we can. Older and sadder but a lot wiser, we’re (some of us, anyway) applying a productively skeptical eye on hydrogen before rushing ahead in naive, dewy-eyed enthusiasm, adoption and lock-in as we we did with coal, oil and natural gas. Two items in our section covering governmental/NGO reports capture a problem with hydrogen familiar from our experience, namely that if not properly handled, hydrogen is a potent greenhouse gas.

The news on the “oops!” potential of hydrogen is not terrible. There are no showstoppers here, only the need for due care in application. It’s all covered in Atmospheric implications of increased hydrogen use by the UK government’s BEIS,  and Fugitive Hydrogen Emissions in a Future Hydrogen Economy,  from the Fraser-Nash Consultancy

Other notables:

Attribution of 2020 hurricane season extreme rainfall to human-induced climate change. Authors identify significant increases of precipitation during tropical storms and hurricanes thanks to our climate mess. Obviously, even more rainfall during these storms is undesirable.

Discussion of Climate Change on Reddit: Polarized Discourse or Deliberative Debate? Tantalizing indications that degraded, polarized online public discourse is a result of platform architectures, not only human nature. Unlike human nature, these systems can easily be changed. 

Navigating the political: An analysis of political calibration of integrated assessment modelling in light of the 1.5 °C goal. “Model” as a verb can be transitive and intransitive. 

The Impact of Neglecting Climate Change and Variability on ERCOT’s Forecasts of Electricity Demand in Texas. “Don’t mention climate change” has hard limits in our corporeal world. In this case, measurable in gigawatts. 

 

150 articles in 56 journals by 626 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Interannual shift of tropical high cloud diurnal cycle under global warming
Wang et al. Climate Dynamics
10.1007/s00382-022-06273-6

The effect of convective injection of ice on stratospheric water vapor in a changing climate
Smith et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl097386

Observations of climate change, effects OBME

(provisional link) Temporal and Spatial Variability in Contemporary Greenland Warming (1958–2020)
10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0313.1

(provisional link) 2021: A Year of Unprecedented Climate Extremes in Eastern Asia, North America, and Europe

Attribution of 2020 hurricane season extreme rainfall to human-induced climate change
Reed et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-29379-1

Snow Depth on Sea Ice and on Land in the Canadian Arctic from Long-Term Observations
Lam et al. Atmosphere
Open Access pdf 10.1080/07055900.2022.2060178

Summer Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea: Trend, Variability and Possible Causes
Tan et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.04.003

Increasing Frequency of Anomalous Precipitation Events in Japan Detected by a Deep Learning Autoencoder
Murakmai et al. Earth’s Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002481

Tree ring evidence of rapid development of drunken forest induced by permafrost warming
Fujii et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16176

Trends in intraseasonal temperature variability in Europe, 1961 – 2018
Krauskopf & Huth International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7645

Mass evolution of the Antarctic Peninsula over the last 2 decades from a joint Bayesian inversion
Chuter et al. The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-1349-2022

Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-21-0140.1

The decadal shift in TC-induced precipitation over China
Xiaocheng et al. Atmospheric Research
10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106186

A Decadal Weakening in the Connection between ENSO and the Following Spring SST over the Northeast Tropical Atlantic after the Mid-1980s
Journal of Climate
Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0698.1

Extreme fire spread events and area burned under recent and future climate in the western USA
Coop et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography
Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.13496

Growing prevalence of heat over cold extremes with overall milder extremes and multiple successive events
Zhang et al. Communications Earth & Environment
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-022-00404-x

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, contributors, effects

Multi-decadal ocean temperature time-series and climatologies from Australia’s long-term National Reference Stations
Roughan et al. Scientific Data
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41597-022-01224-6

Brief communication: Improving ERA5-Land soil temperature in permafrost regions using an optimized multi-layer snow scheme
Cao et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-71

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects MSWE

Navigating the political: An analysis of political calibration of integrated assessment modelling in light of the 1.5 °C goal
van Beek et al. Environmental Science & Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.03.024

Projections of surface air temperature and precipitation in the 21st century in the Qilian Mountains, Northwest China, using REMO in the CORDEX
Lan-Ya et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.03.003

Climatic conditions and prevalence of melanistic snakes—contrasting effects of warm springs and mild winters
Bury et al. International Journal of Biometeorology
10.1007/s00484-022-02279-1

Robustness of Competing Climatic States
Journal of Climate
Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0148.1

High-resolution modelling of climatic hazards relevant for Canada’s northern transportation sector
Teufel & Sushama Climate Dynamics
10.1007/s00382-022-06265-6

Regional climate modeling to understand Tibetan heating remote impacts on East China precipitation
Xu et al. Climate Dynamics
10.1007/s00382-022-06266-5

Projections of faster onset and slower decay of El Niño in the 21st century
Lopez et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-29519-7

(provisional link) Assessment of 21st century changing sea surface temperature, rainfall, and sea surface height patterns in the tropical Pacific Islands using CMIP6 greenhouse warming projections

Is the Western Himalayan region vulnerable with respect to downscaled precipitation?
Meher & Das Das Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-022-04048-x

Regional Signatures of Forced North Atlantic SST Variability:A Limited Role for Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases
Baek et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2022gl097794

Uncertainties in projections of climate extremes indices in South America via Bayesian inference
Gouveia et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7650

Unevenly distributed CO2 and its impacts on surface energy balance
Cheng et al. Atmospheric Research
10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106196

A Bioeconomic Projection of Climate-induced Wildfire Risk in the Forest Sector
Riviere et al. Earth’s Future
10.1029/2021ef002433

Balanced estimate and uncertainty assessment of European climate change using the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble
Evin et al. Earth System Dynamics
Open Access pdf 10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021

The opposite response of the South Asian high to increasing CO2 at different heights
Qu et al. Atmospheric Science Letters
Open Access pdf 10.1002/asl.1093

Bias-adjustment of high-resolution temperature CORDEX data over the Carpathian Region: expected changes including the number of summer and frost days
Torma & Kis International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7654

Future changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean and Sahara regions using Bias-Corrected CMIP6 models
Babaousmail et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7644

Simulated Twentieth-Century Ocean Warming in the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica
Naughten et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl094566

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

The impact of the QBO on the region of the tropical tropopause in QBOi models: present-day simulations
Serva et al. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
10.1002/qj.4287

How reliable are CMIP6 models in representing the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone?
Singh et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7646

Understanding and reducing the uncertainties of land surface energy flux partitioning within CMIP6 land models
Yuan et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108920

Large divergence in tropical hydrological projections caused by model spread in vegetation responses to elevated CO2
Zhou et al. Earth’s Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002457

How to calibrate a dynamical system with neural network based physics?
Balogh et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2022gl097872

Impact of increased resolution on long-standing biases in HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA climate models
Moreno-Chamarro et al. Geoscientific Model Development
Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-15-269-2022

(provisional link) Superior Daily and Sub-Daily Precipitation Statistics for Intense and Long-Lived Storms in Global Storm-Resolving Models

Cryosphere & climate change

Fire and Ice: The impact of wildfire-affected albedo and irradiance on glacier melt
Aubry?Wake et al. Earth’s Future
10.1029/2022ef002685

Modelling the effect of submarine iceberg melting on glacier-adjacent water properties
Davison et al. The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-1181-2022

Snow Depth on Sea Ice and on Land in the Canadian Arctic from Long-Term Observations
Lam et al. Atmosphere
Open Access pdf 10.1080/07055900.2022.2060178

Mass evolution of the Antarctic Peninsula over the last 2 decades from a joint Bayesian inversion
Chuter et al. The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-1349-2022

Climate Change Fosters Competing Effects of Dynamics and Thermodynamics in Seasonal Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice
Journal of Climate
Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0463.1

Spatiotemporal evolution of the maximum freezing depth of seasonally frozen ground and permafrost continuity in historical and future periods in Heilongjiang Province, China
Xu et al. Atmospheric Research
10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106195

Remote sensing annual dynamics of rapid permafrost thaw disturbances with LandTrendr
Runge et al. Remote Sensing of Environment
Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2021.112752

Sea level & climate change SLCC

(provisional link) The contribution of Humboldt Glacier, North Greenland, to sea-level rise through 2100 constrained by recent observations of speedup and retreat

Studying the effect of sea level rise on nuisance flooding due to groundwater in a coastal urban area with aging infrastructure
Su et al. Urban Climate
10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101164

Paleoclimate PCIM

Freshwater forcing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation revisited
He & Clark Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-022-01328-2

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry BIOW

The increasing relevance of phenology to conservation
Ettinger et al. Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-022-01330-8

Sea level rise threatens critical nesting sites of charismatic marine turtles in the Mediterranean
Dimitriadis et al. Regional Environmental Change
10.1007/s10113-022-01922-2

(provisional link) Impacts of future climate change and atmospheric CO2 concentration on ecosystem water retention service

Assessing the vulnerability of plant functional trait strategies to climate change
Andrew et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography
10.1111/geb.13501

Changes in sea ice and range expansion of sperm whales in the eclipse sound region of Baffin Bay, Canada
Posdaljian et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16166

Root foraging alters global patterns of ecosystem legacy from climate perturbations
Berkelhammer et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
Open Access 10.1029/2021jg006612

Cold-air pools as microrefugia for ecosystem functions in the face of climate change
Pastore et al. Ecology
10.1002/ecy.3717

Evolution of potential evapotranspiration and its sensitivity to climate change based on the Thornthwaite, Hargreaves, and Penman–Monteith equation in environmental sensitive areas of China
Li et al. Atmospheric Research
10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106178

Local anthropogenic stress does not exacerbate coral bleaching under global climate change
Johnson et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography
Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.13506

Effect of shrub encroachment on land surface temperature in semi-arid areas of temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere
Shen et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108943

Consequences of thermal plasticity for hypoxic performance in coastal amphipods
Collins et al. Marine Environmental Research
10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105624

Warming drives sustained plant phosphorus demand in a humid tropical forest
Lie et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access 10.1111/gcb.16194

Resilient biotic response to long-term climate change in the Adriatic Sea
Scarponi et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16168

Decline in biological soil crust N-fixing lichens linked to increasing summertime temperatures
Finger-Higgens et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
10.1073/pnas.2120975119

Stingray Habitat Use Is Dynamically Influenced by Temperature and Tides
Elston et al. Frontiers in Marine Science
Open Access pdf 10.3389/fmars.2021.754404

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry GHSS

(provisional link) Grazing enhances carbon cycling but reduces methane emission during peak growing season in the Siberian Pleistocene Park tundra site

(provisional link) Identifying the biological control of the interannual and long-term variations in South Atlantic air-sea CO2 flux

Controls of intermodel uncertainty in land carbon sink projections
Padrón et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2022-92

Uncertain response of ocean biological carbon export in a changing world
Henson et al.
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10507873.3

Evaluation and analysis of methane adsorption capacity in deep-buried coal seams
Zheng et al. Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology
10.1002/ghg.2149

Long-term manipulation of mean climatic conditions alters drought effects on C- and N-cycling in an arable soil
Leyrer et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16173

Estimating interlinks of carbon emissions from transportation, industrialization, and solid/liquid fuels with economic progress: evidence from Pakistan
Rehman et al. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology
10.1007/s13762-022-04111-0

Deforestation-induced climate change reduces carbon storage in remaining tropical forests
Li et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-29601-0

Quantifying methane emissions from the global scale down to point sources using satellite observations of atmospheric methane
Jacob et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-246

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

CO2 absorption and microwave regeneration with high-concentration TETA nonaqueous absorbents
Li et al. Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology
10.1002/ghg.2148

Modelling plant-level abatement costs and effects of incentive policies for coal-fired power generation retrofitted with CCUS
Fan et al. Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112959

Trade-off between tree planting and wetland conservation in China
Xi et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-29616-7

In situ dual doping for constructing efficient CO2-to-methanol electrocatalysts
Li et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-29698-3

Decarbonization

Intermittency and the social role of storage
Waterson et al. Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112947

Effects of the energy transition on environmental impacts of cobalt supply: A prospective life cycle assessment study on future supply of cobalt
Meide et al. Journal of Industrial Ecology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/jiec.13258

Potential zones for offshore wind power development in the Gulf of Mexico using reanalyses data and capacity factor seasonal analysis
Canul-Reyes et al. Energy for Sustainable Development
10.1016/j.esd.2022.03.008

Electrification versus hydrogen for UK road freight: Conclusions from a systems analysis of transport energy transitions
Haugen et al. Energy for Sustainable Development
Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2022.03.011

Can’t buy me acceptance? Financial benefits for wind energy projects in Germany
Knauf Energy Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112924

(provisional link) Nigeria’s energy review: Focusing on solar energy potential and penetration

(provisional link) Sources of opposition to renewable energy projects in the United States

k-nearest neighbor space-time simulator with applications to large-scale wind and solar power modeling
Amonkar et al. Patterns
Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.patter.2022.100454

Geoengineering climate

Impacts of three types of solar geoengineering on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Xie et al. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-22-4581-2022

Stratospheric ozone response to sulfate aerosol and solar dimming climate interventions based on the G6 Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations
Tilmes et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-1003

Aerosols

Interpreting Differences in Radiative Feedbacks from Aerosols Versus Greenhouse Gases
Salvi et al.
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10510061.1

Absorbing aerosol choices influence precipitation changes across future scenarios
McCoy et al.
10.1002/essoar.10510053.2

Climate change communications & cognition CSCC

Impact of climate change information of university students in Turkey on responsibility and environmental behavior through awareness and perceived risk
Yilmaz et al. Environment, Development and Sustainability
Open Access 10.1007/s10668-022-02319-1

Climate Action (Goal 13): The role of climate beliefs, health security and tourism prioritisation in 30 Sub-Saharan African countries
Amadu & Adongo Climatic Change
10.1007/s10584-022-03333-y

Too many ways to help: How to promote climate change mitigation behaviors
Andrews et al. Journal of Environmental Psychology
Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101806

Discussion of Climate Change on Reddit: Polarized Discourse or Deliberative Debate?

Treen et al, Environmental Communications

Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2022.2050776

Climate change perception in Romania
Cheval et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-022-04041-4

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change AGCC

(provisional link) Climate vulnerability assessment of key fishery resources in the Northern Humboldt Current System~

Carbon footprint and carbon neutrality pathway of green tea in China
HE et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.04.001

Climate change adaptation processes seen through a resilience lens: Norwegian farmers’ handling of the dry summer of 2018
Beitnes et al. Environmental Science & Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.03.019

Frost risk by dwindling snow cover
Kersebaum Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-022-01334-4

Explaining radical policy change: Norwegian climate policy and the ban on cultivating peatlands
Farstad et al. Global Environmental Change
Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102517

Farmer identities: facilitating stability and change in agricultural system transitions
Letourneau & Davidson Environmental Sociology
Open Access 10.1080/23251042.2022.2064207

Winter warming stimulates vegetative growth and alters fruit quality of blackcurrant (Ribes nigrum)
Pagter & Kjær International Journal of Biometeorology
10.1007/s00484-022-02284-4

Compounding precipitation effect in modulating maize yield response to global warming
Ban et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7652

Impact of Climate Change on Crops Adaptation and Strategies to Tackle Its Outcome: A Review
Raza et al. Plants
Open Access 10.3390/plants8020034

Hydrology & climate change HYCC

(provisional link) Intra-annual variation of high and low-flow extremes associated with land use and climate change in the Upper Tekeze of the Nile river basin

Future changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean and Sahara regions using Bias-Corrected CMIP6 models
Babaousmail et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7644

Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models
Ayugi et al. Natural Hazards
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-022-05341-8

Future changes in extreme precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone events
Patricola et al. Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100440

(provisional link) Decadal Background for Active Extreme Drought Episodes in the Decade of 2010–19 over Southeastern Mainland Asia

Attribution of 2020 hurricane season extreme rainfall to human-induced climate change
Reed et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-29379-1

Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-21-0140.1

Climate change economics

Why are some countries cleaner than others? New evidence from macroeconomic governance
Akan et al. Environment, Development and Sustainability
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-022-02298-3

How Do Carbon Taxes Affect Emissions? Plant-Level Evidence from Manufacturing
Ahmadi et al. Environmental and Resource Economics
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-022-00678-x

Carbon price prediction model based on adaptive variational mode decomposition and optimized extreme learning machine
Sun & Xu International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology
10.1007/s13762-021-03871-5

Climate change and the circular economy

Impact of a methane emission tax on circular economy scenarios in small wastewater treatment plants
Michalovicz & Bilotta Environment, Development and Sustainability
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-022-02317-3

Climate change mitigation public policy research GPCC

Community science and the design of climate governance
Barry Climatic Change
Open Access 10.1007/s10584-021-03295-7

(provisional link) How injustice can lead to energy policy failure: A case study from Guatemala

Does a Carbon Tax Reduce CO2 Emissions? Evidence from British Columbia
Pretis SSRN Electronic Journal
10.2139/ssrn.3329512

Navigating the political: An analysis of political calibration of integrated assessment modelling in light of the 1.5 °C goal
van Beek et al. Environmental Science & Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.03.024

A novel cluster based multi-index nonlinear ensemble framework for carbon price forecasting
Wang & Zhuang Environment, Development and Sustainability
10.1007/s10668-022-02299-2

Top-down or bottom-up? Norwegian climate mitigation policy as a contested hybrid of policy approaches
Weiglein Nature
Open Access 10.1038/429613a

Re-thinking procurement incentives for electric vehicles to achieve net-zero emissions
Nunes et al. Nature Sustainability
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41893-022-00862-3

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

The Role of Regional Connections in Planning for Future Power System Operations under Climate Extremes
Dyreson et al. Earth’s Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002554

Implementing a knowledge system: Lessons from the global stewardship of climate services
Guido et al. Global Environmental Change
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102516

Compound urban crises
Westman et al. Ambio
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-021-01697-6

Climate change impacts on human health CCHH

(provisional link) Changes in heat stress considering temperature, humidity, and wind over East Asia under RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios

Using clustering, statistical modeling, and climate change projections to analyze recent and future region-specific compound ozone and temperature burden over Europe
Jahn & Hertig GeoHealth
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021gh000561

Future population exposure to daytime and nighttime heat waves in South Asia
Ullah et al. Earth’s Future
10.1029/2021ef002511

Climate change impacts on human culture

Climate change impacts on future driving and walking conditions in Finland, Norway and Sweden
Freistetter et al. Regional Environmental Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-01920-4

Other

(provisional link) Intensification of Pacific trade wind and related changes in the relationship between sea surface temperature and sea level pressure

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives IOPN

(provisional link) Will the regime ever break? Assessing socio-political and economic pressures to climate action and European oil majors’ response (2005-2019)
10.1080/14693062.2022.2044283

The Impact of Neglecting Climate Change and Variability on ERCOT’s Forecasts of Electricity Demand in Texas
Lee & Dessler Weather, Climate, and Society
Open Access 10.1175/wcas-d-21-0140.1

WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: A Prediction for 2021–25
Hermanson et al. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-20-0311.1

The Humanitarian Sector Needs Clear Job Profiles for Climate Science Translators Now More than Ever
Enenkel & Kruczkiewicz Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-20-0263.1

Who is the Anthropos in the Anthropocene?
Hoelle & Kawa Kawa Widhianto Szerszynski Gunaratnam Ernstson Annals of the American Association of Geographers
Open Access pdf 10.1080/24694452.2020.1842171

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Climate Change Impacts Across California Crosscutting Issues, California Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO)

Addressing the widespread impacts of climate change represents a significant challenge for the state, and one that will increasingly occupy the California legislature’s agenda in the coming years. A changing climate presents California with five key climate hazards: (1) higher temperatures and extreme heat events, (2) more severe wildfires, (3) more frequent and intense droughts, (4) flooding due to extreme precipitation events, and (5) coastal flooding and erosion from sea-level rise. These hazards will threaten public health, safety, and well-being—including from life-threatening events, damage to public and private property and infrastructure, and impaired natural resources.

Note: The LAO also produced reports on climate change effects on California’s transportation, health, housing, K-12 education, and, workers and employers. These six reports, which grew out of an initial project conducted for the Speaker of the California Assembly, are intended to help policymakers think about how climate change will impact various sectors and, consequently, what key corresponding policy and fiscal issues the California legislature will face in the coming years. Given the complexity of the issues, these reports do not contain explicit recommendations or a specific path forward; rather, they are intended as framing documents to help the Legislature adopt a climate lens across multiple policy areas.

Europe’s Land Future? Opportunities to use Europe’s land to fight climate change and improve biodiversity— and why proposed policies could undermine both, Searchinger et al., Princeton University and Center for Policy Research on Energy and the Environment

The European Union has ambitious goals to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and to restore its depleted biodiversity. To achieve each goal, diverting agricultural land and production forests to other uses must play a key role. Such alternative uses could aim to increase carbon storage and biodiversity by restoring habitats in Europe. Less discussed, these goals could also include preserving carbon storage and biodiversity abroad by reversing Europe’s large, net imports of agricultural products. These net imports mean that Europe’s global land footprint is contributing significantly to deforestation and habitat loss abroad. To contribute to these goals, Europe must reduce what can be called its land carbon footprint. This footprint is the reduced carbon storage in vegetation and soils on agricultural and forest lands used to supply Europe’s consumption of wood and agricultural products. The authors find that Europe has significant potential to do so and identifies potential priorities for carbon sequestration and biodiversity restoration.

How Climate Change May Affect the U.S. Economy, Weinstock and Leggett, US Congressional Research Service

The authors begin with a discussion of potential mechanisms through which climate change could affect the U.S. economy, including productivity, business investment, and sector impacts. They then examine some of the research into the economic effects of climate change as well as the limitations of such research. The authors do not review research on how policies to mitigate climate change would affect the economy. Rather, they review research on the economic effects of climate change given specific climate outcomes. The research reviewed is intended to provide “what if” scenarios rather than a “best guess” of future outcomes.

Statement of Principles for Climate-Related Financial Risk Management for Large Financial InstitutionsFederal Deposit Insurance Corporation

Notice of proposed policy statement; request for comment. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is requesting comment by June 3, 2022, on draft principles that would provide a high-level framework for the safe and sound management of exposures to climate-related financial risks. Although all financial institutions, regardless of size, may have material exposures to climate-related financial risks, these draft principles are targeted at the largest financial institutions, those with over $100 billion in total consolidated assets. The draft principles are intended to support efforts by large financial institutions to focus on key aspects of climate-related financial risk management.

Climate change increased rainfall associated with tropical cyclones hitting highly vulnerable communities in Madagascar, Mozambique & Malawi, Otto et al., World Weather Attribution Initiative

Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, and neighboring countries suffered severe flooding after a series of tropical storms, including three cyclones, hit the region, starting with storms Ana and Batsirai in January and February 2022. Most impacts were caused by flooding. The authors assessed the rainfall associated with tropical storms, measured as the 3-day annual maximum. A measure which is short enough to exclude rainfall from other events that occur close to the event in question but long enough to encompass the full impacts. To determine the role of climate change, the authors combined observations with climate models. They concluded that greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions are in part responsible for the observed increases in flooding.

Atmospheric implications of increased hydrogen use, Warwick et al., Department of Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy, Government of the United Kingdom

Use of hydrogen (H2) as a substitute for carbon-containing fossil fuels such as natural gas would prevent emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, with significant climate benefits. Nevertheless, any leakage of hydrogen will affect atmospheric composition with implications for air quality and have an indirect warming effect on climate, partially offsetting some of the climate benefits of the reduction in carbon dioxide. The authors used current climate and atmospheric chemistry models to explore the atmospheric impacts of a global hydrogen economy. They modelled atmospheric impacts and calculated the radiative forcing resulting from hydrogen emissions and hydrogen’s global warming potential. The authors recommend that hydrogen leakage be reduced, and that consideration be given to how hydrogen is used to minimize the atmospheric impacts of energy use.

Fugitive Hydrogen Emissions in a Future Hydrogen EconomyFrazer-Nash Consultancy

Hydrogen is likely to play a significant role in the decarbonization of the United Kingdom’s future energy system. However, there is an increasing body of evidence that hydrogen is itself an indirect greenhouse gas and recent research suggests that it has a Global Warming Potential 11 times that of carbon dioxide (over a 100-year time horizon). Hydrogen, by its nature, is hard to contain and understanding how much hydrogen could be emitted to the atmosphere in a future hydrogen energy system is important for policy development. This authors identified and quantified the different mechanisms for fugitive hydrogen emissions in a future 2050 hydrogen economy. These include all mechanisms where hydrogen may be released to the atmosphere including unintended leaks, e.g.. from joints, pipework and storage, as well as deliberate purging or venting.


Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light”  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

What does (provisional link)” mean?

When the input list for New Research is processed, some articles do not produce a result from the journal databases we employ. Usually this is because the publisher has not yet supplied information to doi.org for the given article. In these cases and in order to still include timely listing of articles, we employ an alternate search tactic. While this method is usually correct, sometimes the link shown will lead to an incorrect destination (available time does not always permit manual checking of these). We invite readers to submit corrections in comments below.

Each edition of New Research is reprocessed some two weeks after intitial publication to catch stragglers into the DOI ecosystem. Many “provisional links” will end up being corrected as part of this process. 

Suggestions

Please let us know if you’re aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we’ve missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

Reference-www.skepticalscience.com

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