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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #14 2022

Posted on 7 April 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

To get engaged, we need to know terms and conditions

Given our acceptance of more or less representative, democratic governance as the political sine qua non of modern civilization, important decisions necessarily require intimate participation by the general public. This is accepted not only by healthily functioning politicians and bureaucracies, but also by scientists serving as “primary sources” for vital insights and data providing guidance to public policy. Public policy starts with the public, after all. 

Obviously, for the general public to properly serve its foundational role in shaping successful public policy, the public must be engaged in whatever process or challenge is the subject of policy. This doesn’t happen by accident, but rather by concerted, purposeful communications efforts. This work is predicated on models of the properties of “public engagement.” 

In What is Public Engagement and How Does it Help to Address Climate Change? A Review of Climate Communication Research, postdoc researcher and faculty member of Helsinki University Ville Kumpu produces a “high resolution scan” of the current state of affairs of our understanding of public engagement as it relates to climate change.  In particular, Kumpu reviews research seeking to describe and quantify what turns out to be a melange of related but separate understandings of what constitutes “public engagement.” Indeed (and leading back to the article title), the tacit assumption of much research seems to imply a common understanding of what constitutes “public engagement: “Public engagement is rarely defined in the 44 documents reviewed for this article: in only six of them do the authors explicitly explain what the term means. Instead, it is frequently used as a general referent to captivating people with the issue of climate change in a positive manner or involving them in activities related to mitigation or adaptation.”

For the layperson, the fruit of this article lies as much in underpinnings in citations as it does in conclusions. In journalistic terms it’s “deeply reported” and will help any person seeking a better understanding of what it means to be “engaged with climate change” as a member of the general public.

Other notables:

Natural disasters and climate change beliefs: The role of distance and prior beliefs. Even in the face of a stark object lesson, “skeptics” fail to change their minds. This of course belies actual skepticism. 

Process-level Assessment of the Iris Effect over Tropical Oceans. The “Iris Effect” was a small hope of escape from our climate mess. It continues to shrink. 

Open source modelling of scenarios for a 100% renewable energy system in Barbados incorporating shore-to-ship power and electric vehicles. Encouraging results in a challenging location. 

141 articles in 42 journals by 569 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Process-level Assessment of the Iris Effect over Tropical Oceans
Ito & Masunaga Masunaga Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access 10.1029/2022gl097997

The Midlatitude Response to Polar Sea Ice Loss: Idealized Slab-Ocean Aquaplanet Experiments with Thermodynamic Sea Ice
Smith Journal of Climate
Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0508.1

Convective rain cell properties and the resulting precipitation scaling in a warm temperate climate
Purr et al. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Open Access pdf 10.1002/qj.4277

Observations of climate change, effects

Centennial changes in heat waves characteristics in Athens (Greece) from multiple definitions based on climatic and bioclimatic indices
Founda et al. Global and Planetary Change
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103807

Enhanced upward motion through the troposphere over the tropical western Pacific and its implications for the transport of trace gases from the troposphere to the stratosphere
Qie et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-647

Global field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth’s forests
Hammond et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-29289-2

Atmospheric energy change in the Arctic troposphere under Arctic warming
Kong et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7638

Declining vulnerability but rising impacts: the trends of climatic disasters in Nepal
Chapagain et al. Regional Environmental Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-01903-5

Decline of sea-ice in the Greenland Sea intensifies extreme precipitation over Svalbard
Müller et al. Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100437

Seasonally dependent precipitation changes and their driving mechanisms in Southwest Asia
Alizadeh & Babaei Climatic Change
10.1007/s10584-022-03316-z

Joint Effect of West Pacific Warming and the Arctic Oscillation on the Bidecadal Variation and Trend of the East Asian Trough
Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0461.1

(provisional link) Temporal and Spatial Variability in Contemporary Greenland Warming (1958–2020)

Arctic amplification modulated by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and greenhouse forcing on multidecadal to century scales
Fang et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-29523-x

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, contributors, effects WINS

(provisional link) Estimating global downward shortwave radiation from VIIRS data using a transfer-learning neural network
10.1109/TGRS.2020.2994384

Use of daily precipitation records to assess the response of extreme events to global warming: Methodology and illustrative application to the European region
Giorgi & Ciarlo` International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7629

Global daily actual and snow-free blue-sky land surface albedo climatology from 20-year MODIS products
Jia et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
10.1029/2021jd035987

Nonstationary seasonal model for daily mean temperature distribution bridging bulk and tails
Krock et al. Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100438

The citizens who chart changing climate
Armarego-Marriott Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-022-01333-5

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects MSWE

Future changes of atmospheric energy cycle in CMIP5 climate models
Kanno & Iwasaki Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
10.1029/2021jd036380

Climate Sensitivity is Sensitive to Changes in Ocean Heat Transport
Barreiro et al. Journal of Climate
Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-10-05029.1

A global dataset on subgrid land surface climate (2015–2100) from the Community Earth System Model
Zhang et al. Geoscience Data Journal
Open Access pdf 10.1002/gdj3.153

Correlation between sea-level rise and aspects of future tropical cyclone activity in CMIP6 models
Lockwood et al. Earth’s Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002462

The Evolving Role of External Forcing in North Atlantic SST Variability over the Last Millennium
Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0338.1

Multi-model ensemble of statistically downscaled GCMs over southeastern South America: historical evaluation and future projections of daily precipitation with focus on extremes
ME et al. Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06236-x

Assessing the synergic effect of land use and climate change on the upper Betwa River catchment in Central India under present, past, and future climate scenarios
Kumar et al. Environment, Development and Sustainability
10.1007/s10668-022-02260-3

Sensitivity of global ocean deoxygenation to vertical and isopycnal mixing in an ocean biogeochemistry model
Ito et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles
10.1029/2021gb007151

High-resolution mapping of the global silicate weathering carbon sink and its long-term changes
Li et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16186

The future poleward shift of Southern Hemisphere summer mid-latitude storm tracks stems from ocean coupling
Chemke Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-29392-4

The Impact of the Direct Radiative Effect of Increased CO2 on the West African Monsoon
Chadwick et al. Journal of Climate
Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0340.1

Weakened amplitude and delayed phase of the future temperature seasonal cycle over China during the twenty-first century
Hu et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7634

Evaluation and multi-model projection of seasonal precipitation extremes over Central Asia based on CMIP6 simulations
Dike et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7641

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection GCMA

(provisional link) Changes in Extreme Precipitation Events in the Zambezi River Basins Based on CORDEX-CORE Models: Part I Evaluation of Historical Simulation

GCMA

A critical view on the suitability of machine learning techniques to downscale climate change projections: Illustration for temperature with a toy experiment
Hernanz et al. Atmospheric Science Letters
Open Access pdf 10.1002/asl.1087

Comparing rain-on-snow representation across different observational methods and a regional climate model
Vickers et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-57

Assessing free tropospheric quasi-equilibrium for different GCM resolutions using a cloud-resolving model simulation of tropical convection
Wang et al. Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06232-1

Does Model Calibration Reduce Uncertainty in Climate Projections?
Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0434.1

Potential and limitations of convection-permitting CNRM-AROME climate modelling in the French Alps
Monteiro et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7637

Why coupled general circulation models overestimate the ENSO and Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) relationship?
Das et al. Climate Dynamics
10.1007/s00382-022-06253-w

Cryosphere & climate change

Glacier shrinkage will accelerate downstream decomposition of organic matter and alters microbiome structure and function
Kohler et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16169

The role of oceanic heat flux in reducing thermodynamic ice growth in Nares Strait and promoting earlier collapse of the ice bridge
Kirillov et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-2022-16

A New Norm for Seasonal Sea Ice Advance Predictability in the Chukchi Sea: Rising Influence of Ocean Heat Advection
Nakanowatari et al. Journal of Climate
Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0425.1

Sea level & climate change SLCC

(provisional link) The contribution of Humboldt Glacier, North Greenland, to sea-level rise through 2100 constrained by recent observations of speedup and retreat

(provisional link) Predicted Sea-Level Rise-Driven Biogeomorphological Changes on Fire Island, New York: Implications for People and Plovers

Correlation between sea-level rise and aspects of future tropical cyclone activity in CMIP6 models
Lockwood et al. Earth’s Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002462

Rethinking Sea-Level Projections using Families and Timing Differences
Slangen et al. Earth’s Future
10.1029/2021ef002576

Paleoclimate PCIM

How changing the height of the Antarctic ice sheet affects global climate: A mid-Pliocene case study
Huang et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-2022-30

A global temperature control of silicate weathering intensity
Deng et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-29415-0

Warm mid-Pliocene conditions without high climate sensitivity: the CCSM4-Utrecht (CESM 1.0.5) contribution to the PlioMIP2
Baatsen et al. Climate of the Past
Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-18-657-2022

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry BIOW

Behaviour broadens thermal safety margins on artificial coastal defences in the tropics
Chan et al. Marine Environmental Research
10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105618

A three-dimensional climate-smart conservation approach in the high seas
Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-022-01315-7

Restructuring of plankton genomic biogeography in the surface ocean under climate change
Frémont et al. Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-022-01314-8

Contrasting climate signals across a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) tree-ring network in the Middle Volga (European Russia)
Kuznetsova & Solomina Dendrochronologia
10.1016/j.dendro.2022.125957

Historical and future spatially-explicit climate change impacts on mycorrhizal and saprotrophic macrofungal productivity in Mediterranean pine forests
Morera et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108918

Adaptation to climate change through seasonal migration revealed by climatic versus demographic niche models
Carbeck et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16185

Warming enhances dominance of vascular plants over cryptogams across northern wetlands
Bao et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16182

Climate-driven range expansion through anthropogenic landscapes: landscape connectivity matters
Maes & Van Dyck Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16180

Direct and latent effects of ocean acidification on the transition of a sea urchin from planktonic larva to benthic juvenile
Dorey et al. Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-09537-7

Phenotypic responses in fish behaviour narrow as climate ramps up
Rodriguez-Dominguez et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03341-y

The role of dispersal, selection intensity, and extirpation risk in resilience to climate change: A trait-based modelling approach
Mo et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography
10.1111/geb.13495

Climate warming can reduce biocontrol efficacy and promote plant invasion due to both genetic and transient metabolomic changes
Sun et al. Ecology Letters
Open Access pdf 10.1111/ele.14000

Venomous animals in a changing world
Martinez et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16175

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry GHSS

(provisional link) Identifying the biological control of the interannual and long-term variations in South Atlantic air-sea CO2 flux

(provisional link) Spatial and temporal variation of 13C signature of methane emitted from a temperate mire: Methanogenesis, methanotrophy, and hysteresis

Atmospheric CO2 and sea surface temperature variability cannot explain recent decadal variability of the ocean CO2 sink
DeVries Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl096018

Historically inconsistent productivity and respiration fluxes in the global terrestrial carbon cycle
Jian et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-29391-5

High-resolution mapping of the global silicate weathering carbon sink and its long-term changes
Li et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16186

Soil carbon is the blind spot of European national GHG inventories
Bellassen et al. Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-022-01321-9

Importance of the forest state in estimating biomass losses from tropical forests: combining dynamic forest models and remote sensing
Hiltner et al. Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-1891-2022

Carbon emission efficiency of thermal power generation in China: Empirical evidence from the micro-perspective of power plants
Fang et al. Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112955

Quantification and assessment of methane emissions from offshore oil and gas facilities on the Norwegian continental shelf
Foulds et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-872

Low carbon availability in paleosols nonlinearly attenuates temperature sensitivity of SOM decomposition
Su et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.16183

Spatialization of Chinese R-410A emissions from the room air-conditioning sector
Wu et al. Environment, Development and Sustainability
10.1007/s10668-022-02264-z

The role of tides and sea ice on the carbonate chemistry in a coastal polynya in the south-eastern Weddell Sea
Droste et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-2022-19

There and back again, a journey of many pathways: conceptualising the marine organic carbon cycle
Scheffold & Hense Ocean Science
Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-18-437-2022

Meteorological responses of carbon dioxide and methane fluxes in the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems of a subarctic landscape
Heiskanen et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2022-69

Different responses of soil respiration to climate change in permafrost and non-permafrost regions of the Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to 2018
Pan et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7639

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Examining the role of environmental memory in the predictability of carbon and water fluxes across Australian ecosystems
Cranko Page et al. Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-1913-2022

Decarbonization

Cost–benefit analysis of coal plant repurposing in developing countries: A case study of India
Jindal & Shrimali Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112911

Open source modelling of scenarios for a 100% renewable energy system in Barbados incorporating shore-to-ship power and electric vehicles
Harewood et al. Energy for Sustainable Development
Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.esd.2022.03.004

Assessing nuclear phase-out
Rausch Nature Climate Change
Open Access 10.1038/s41558-022-01336-2

Geoengineering climate Black carbon

(provisional link) Black carbon-climate interactions regulate dust burdens over India revealed during COVID-19

Aerosols

Fire-climate interactions through aerosol radiative effect in a global chemistry-climate-vegetation model
Tian et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-175

Numerical study of aerosol radiative forcing over East Asia and the impacts of cloud coverage and relative humidity
Guo et al. Atmospheric Research
10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106168

Climate change communications & cognition CSCC

(provisional link) Relationships between climate change perceptions and climate adaptation actions: policy support, information seeking, and behaviour
10.1007/s10584-022-03338-7

(provisional link) Mortality management and climate action: A review and reference for using Terror Management Theory methods in interdisciplinary environmental research

What is Public Engagement and How Does it Help to Address Climate Change? A Review of Climate Communication Research
Kumpu Environmental Communication
Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2022.2055601

The influence of political ideology on greenhouse gas emissions
Wang et al. Global Environmental Change
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102496

Individual and community perceptions of climate change in Lower Mustang, Nepal
Bom et al. Environment, Development and Sustainability
10.1007/s10668-022-02291-w

The Six Australias: Concern About Climate Change (and Global Warming) is Rising
Neumann et al. Environmental Communication
10.1080/17524032.2022.2048407

Adolescent framings of climate change, psychological distancing, and implications for climate change concern and behavior
Busch & Ayala Chávez Climatic Change
10.1007/s10584-022-03349-4

Natural disasters and climate change beliefs: The role of distance and prior beliefs
Osberghaus & Fugger Global Environmental Change
Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102515

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change AGCC

(provisional link) Climate vulnerability assessment of key fishery resources in the Northern Humboldt Current System~

Agricultural adaptation to reconcile food security and water sustainability under climate change: the case of cereals in Iran
Karandish et al.
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10506814.1

Climate change impacts on phenology and ripening of cv. Touriga Nacional in the Dão wine region, Portugal
Rodrigues et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7633

Determining the impact of climate change on land suitability for rice paddy cultivation using GIS and RS on FAO maximum limitation approach
Ozsahin & Ozdes Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-022-04033-4

Climate Information Services Available to Farming Households in Northern Region, Ghana
Weather, Climate, and Society
10.1175/wcas-d-21-0075.1

Tradeoffs and Synergies Across Global Climate Change Adaptations in the Food-Energy-Water Nexus
Torhan et al. Earth’s Future
10.1029/2021ef002201

Venomous animals in a changing world
Martinez et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16175

Recent grain production boom in Russia in historical context
Kirilenko & Dronin Kirilenko Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03332-z

Heat stress on maize with contrasting genetic background: Differences in flowering and yield formation
Liu et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108934

Hydrology & climate change HYCC

(provisional link) Effect of droughts on future weathering rates in Sweden
10.5194/bg-2022-78

Increase of future summer rainfall in the middle and lower reach of the Yangtze River basin projected with a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model
Guo et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl097325

Divergent and changing importance of glaciers and snow as natural water reservoirs in the eastern and southern Tibetan Plateau
Qi et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
10.1029/2021jd035888

(provisional link) Intra-annual variation of high and low-flow extremes associated with land use and climate change in the Upper Tekeze of the Nile river basin

Seasonally dependent precipitation changes and their driving mechanisms in Southwest Asia
Alizadeh & Babaei Climatic Change
10.1007/s10584-022-03316-z

The role of the Near East surface pressure variations in recent past trends of wet season precipitation in the Levant
Krichak & Alpert International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7632

More rain, less often
Wake Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-022-01346-0

Venice as a paradigm of coastal flooding under multiple compound drivers
Ferrarin et al. Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-09652-5

Drying in the low-latitude Atlantic Ocean contributed to terrestrial water storage depletion across Eurasia
Shen et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-29544-6

Climate change economics Climate change and the circular economy Climate change mitigation public policy research GPCC

(provisional link) How injustice can lead to energy policy failure: A case study from Guatemala

Advancing bipartisan decarbonization policies: lessons from state-level successes and failures
Marshall & Burgess Burgess Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03335-w

How do carbon cap-and-trade mechanisms and renewable portfolio standards affect renewable energy investment?
Yan et al. Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112938

Setting the sun on off-grid solar?: policy lessons from the Bangladesh solar home systems (SHS) programme
Hellqvist & Heubaum Climate Policy
Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2022.2056118

Balancing cost and justice concerns in the energy transition: comparing coal phase-out policies in Germany and the UK
Bang et al. Climate Policy
10.1080/14693062.2022.2052788

Accessibility in sustainability transitions: U.S. electric utilities’ deployment of solar
Shittu & Weigelt Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112942

Equity implications of market structure and appliance energy efficiency regulation
Spurlock & Fujita Energy Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112943

How to support EV adoption: Tradeoffs between charging infrastructure investments and vehicle subsidies in California
Ledna et al. Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112931

A two-step carbon pricing scheme enabling a net-zero and net-negative CO2-emissions world
Becattini et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03340-z

Cross-sector flexibility, storage investment and the integration of renewables: Capturing the impacts of grid tariffs
Bergaentzle & Gunkel Energy Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112937

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Identifying adaptation ‘on the ground’: Development of a UK Adaptation Inventory
Jenkins et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100430

Information, Consequentiality and Credibility in Stated Preference Surveys: A Choice Experiment on Climate Adaptation
Welling et al. Environmental and Resource Economics
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-022-00675-0

The role of indigenous knowledge and local knowledge in water sector adaptation to climate change in Africa: a structured assessment
Zvobgo et al. Sustainability Science
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-022-01118-x

Tradeoffs and Synergies Across Global Climate Change Adaptations in the Food-Energy-Water Nexus
Torhan et al. Earth’s Future
10.1029/2021ef002201

Climate change impacts on human health

Improved models, improved information? Exploring how climate change impacts pollen, influenza, and mold in Berlin and its surroundings
Langendijk et al. Urban Climate
Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101159

Venomous animals in a changing world
Martinez et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16175

(provisional link) Changes in heat stress considering temperature, humidity, and wind over East Asia under RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios

Climate change & geopolitics Climate change impacts on human culture

Losing snow and value
Findlay Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-022-01345-1

Other

Exceptional Warmth in the Northern Hemisphere during January–March of 2020: The Roles of Unforced and Forced Modes of Atmospheric Variability
Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0291.1

Unprecedented decline of Arctic sea ice outflow in 2018
Sumata et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-29470-7

Stratospheric ozone depletion and tropospheric ozone increases drive Southern Ocean interior warming
Liu et al. Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-022-01320-w

Estimation of anthropogenic heat release in Mexico City
Bonifacio-Bautista et al. Urban Climate
10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101158

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives IOPN

(provisional link) Will the regime ever break? Assessing socio-political and economic pressures to climate action and European oil majors’ response (2005-2019)

Informing Nature-based Climate Solutions for the United States with the best-available science
Journal of Development and Social Sciences
Open Access pdf 10.47205/jdss.2021(2-iv)74

The EU needs to improve its external energy security
Mišík Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112930

What is the importance of climate research? An innovative web-based approach to assess the influence and reach of climate research programs
Carneiro et al. Environmental Science & Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.03.018

Concluding commentary to the special issue: ‘Climate Change Communication and the IPCC’
Krug Climatic Change
10.1007/s10584-021-03255-1

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Climate Risk Exposure: An Assessment of the Federal Government’s Financial Risks to Climate Change, Office Of Management and Budget

The climate crisis poses a serious threat to the United States economy and human welfare, with a narrowing timeframe to invest in opportunities to avoid the most catastrophic impacts. Extreme weather events can be exacerbated by climate change, disrupting supply chains, and flooding made worse by sea level rise can destroy critical infrastructure. As a smaller subset of these impacts, climate change threatens the Nation’s fiscal health. The report examines the federal government’s climate risk exposure through six program-specific assessments that consider a handful of the out-year potential damages to these programs: crop insurance, coastal disasters, federal healthcare, federal wildland fire suppression, federal facility flood risk, and flood insurance. By reviewing the major impact categories in the 4th National Climate Assessment and examining data limitations of future risk for federal programs, significant climate risks are understood and apparent, but they are unable to be quantified at this time. The assessments included in this paper and projected risks that are quantified are helpful in approximating the order of magnitude of potential impacts of climate change on the federal budget in these six areas but are subject to limitations and uncertainty.

Climate-Related Macroeconomic Risks and Opportunities. White House Council of Economic Advisors, OMB

The paper lays out some of the macroeconomic implications of climate change and the transition to a lower carbon economy in the United States, reviews available climate-macro research and methodologies, and identifies relevant resources in the Federal government for generating climate-macro projections. The paper is a first step towards climate-macro projections developed by the federal government.

Assessing the Viability of Hydrogen Proposals: Considerations for State Utility Regulators and Policymakers, Baldwin et al., Energy Innovation

Natural gas and electric utilities across the United States are increasingly pursuing pilot projects to blend hydrogen with natural gas for various end-uses, including as a heating fuel in buildings or for power generation. However, research shows these projects would increase consumer costs, exacerbate air pollution, and cause safety risks while minimally reducing greenhouse gases. By comparison, electrification is a proven, low-cost alternative that poses no safety or health risks and can rapidly cut building emissions. And in the power sector, increasing renewable electricity is a much more efficient clean energy pathway. State utility regulators and policymakers should require a high burden of proof from utilities to demonstrate the scalability, cost-effectiveness, and environmental justice impacts of any hydrogen proposal.

 

Pure Potential. The Case for Stormwater Capture and Use, US Environmental Protection Agency

As America’s water managers embrace the challenges of climate change and associated risks to water supply, a distinct focus to date has been on increasing supply through wastewater reuse and desalination. Increasingly, though, we are recognizing the great potential to harvest, treat, and use stormwater and rainwater to address supply vulnerabilities, improve water quality, reduce flooding risk, and achieve other co-benefits in urban areas. In some parts of the country, this potential is being realized through successful implementation of both small- and large-scale projects to harvest stormwater and rainwater for consumptive use. However, the understanding of stormwater capture and use (SCU) potential and challenges varies across the nation, and many areas could benefit from the experience and insights of early SCU adopters that have successfully implemented stormwater/rainwater harvesting projects. Interest in SCU is growing, but it is vital to build a better understanding of how its drivers, potential, and implementation challenges vary across different scenarios in order to effectively build our capacity to implement SCU across the nation. The report lays the groundwork for establishing a unified community of practice around SCU and a strategic framework for coordinated action to address the most important challenges to widespread SCU implementation in urban areas. Where practicable, the report assigns specific organizations to lead key actions for helping stormwater managers build familiarity with effective SCU practices and developing local capacity for SCU implementation.

Banking on Climate Chaos. Fossil Fuel Finance Report 2022, Rainforest Action Network

Fossil fuel financing from the world’s 60 largest banks has reached USD $4.6 trillion in the six years since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, with $742 billion in fossil fuel financing in 2021 alone. This report examines commercial and investment bank financing for the fossil fuel industry — aggregating their leading roles in lending and underwriting debt and equity issuances — and finds that even in a year where net-zero commitments were all the rage, the financial sector continued its business-as-usual driving of climate chaos. Fossil fuel financing plateaued last year, amid a lagging recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic — yet at levels still higher than in 2016, the first year after the Paris Agreement was adopted. These findings underscore the need for banks to immediately implement policies that end their financing for fossil fuel expansion and begin to zero out their support altogether. Overall fossil fuel financing remains dominated by four U.S. banks — JPMorgan Chase, Citi, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America — who together account for one quarter of all fossil fuel financing identified over the last six years. RBC is Canada’s worst banker of fossil fuels, with Barclays as the worst in Europe and MUFG as the worst in Japan.

Zeroing in on Healthy Air. A National Assessment of Health and Climate Benefits of Zero-Emission Transportation and Electricity, American Lung Association

The report presents the public health urgency of policies and investments for transitioning to zero-emission transportation and electricity generation in the coming decades. These sectors are leading sources of unhealthy air in the United States. Today, over 4 in 10 Americans — more than 135 million people — live in communities impacted by unhealthy levels of air pollution. Research demonstrates that the burdens of unhealthy air include increased asthma attacks, heart attacks and strokes, lung cancer and premature death. These poor health outcomes are not shared equitably, with many communities of color and lower income communities at greater risk due to increased exposure to transportation pollution. The transportation sector is also the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change which threatens clean air progress and amplifies a wide range of health risks and disparities. The authors found that a national shift to 100 percent sales of zero-emission passenger vehicles by 2035)and medium- and heavy-duty trucks by 2040, coupled with renewable electricity would generate over $1.2 trillion in public health benefits between 2020 and 2050. These benefits would take the form of avoiding up to 110,000 premature deaths, along with nearly 3 million asthma attacks and over 13 million workdays lost due to cleaner air. The authors calculate the emission reductions possible from shifting to vehicles without tailpipes, as well as eliminating fuel combustion from the electricity generation sector so that neither those living near roads or near electricity generation would be subjected to unacceptable doses of toxic air pollution. The authors also highlight the fact that the shift to zero emission transportation and electricity generation in the United States will yield avoided global climate damages over $1.7 trillion.

 

Global Electricity Review 2022, Jones et al., Ember 

Wind and solar hit a tenth of global electricity, but the global electricity transition needs to sustain very high growth rates to replace coal and reduce emissions. Solar generation rose 23% in 2021 and wind by 14%. Combined, this takes them to more than 10% of global electricity generation. All clean electricity sources generated 38% of the world’s electricity in 2021, more than coal (36%). To be on a pathway that keeps global heating to 1.5 degrees, wind and solar need to sustain high compound growth rates of 20% every year to 2030. That’s the same rate of growth as their average over the last decade.

The state of the agri-SME sector – Bridging the finance gap, ISF Advisors

The last decade has seen increasing recognition by policymakers, capital providers, and finance practitioners of the vital role played by agricultural small- and medium-sized enterprises (agri-SMEs) in agricultural and food systems in developing countries, as well as their key challenge of limited access to finance.. The specific focus on the needs of agri-SMEs as a sub-segment of the broader SME finance agenda and the “missing middle” is important as these needs—and the dynamics around providing finance—have unique dimensions. While many of these dynamics have been deeply studied in the context of specific lending models, the report notes the increasingly pluralistic landscape of agri-SME finance in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. The authors’ goal is to establish a new perspective on the market overall—sizing and segmenting the market in new ways, reflecting on the rapidly accelerating imperative around climate, and identifying new priorities for action. The authors believe that this periodic stocktaking offers an opportunity to both understand the current state of the sector in new ways and also to think broadly about what is needed to move the agri-SME finance agenda forward.

Granular Certificate Scheme Standard, Moody et al., EnergyTag

The central purpose of Granular Certificates (GCs) is to make electricity traceability more closely represent the physical reality and real-world availability of clean energy sources. This gives consumers the ability to demonstrate the matching of their consumption with the energy generation source of their choice on a (sub)hourly basis, or to purchase electricity at times that maximize avoided emissions. Currently, energy attribute certificates are used to track clean energy purchases on an annually. Those annual clean energy certificates, which include renewable energy certificates in North America and guarantees of origin in Europe, are the standard mechanism for companies, cities, and other clean energy buyers to achieve 100 percent clean energy and be able to back up their claims. The new Granular Certificates would take that existing framework and modify it slightly to add a time stamp showing the hour or the half-hour in which the electricity was produced. Consumers can then use GCs to say where their energy came from in a specific hour or half-hour period. Back when renewable energy was scarce, averaging out clean energy purchases over a year’s time made sense since no matter what, renewables were always replacing fossil fuels. But, as renewables have grown to make up a significant share of some power grids, timing becomes a massive factor because you have times when there is overproduction of renewables and other times when there is none. 

Sink or swim: How Indigenous and community lands can make or break nationally determined contributions, Akhtar et al., World Resources Institute and Climate Focus

The authors examine the role of Indigenous peoples and local communities’ (IPLC) lands as carbon sinks and how they may affect national climate commitments in four countries – Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. These countries are responsible for 5.1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and store about 28 percent of the carbon located in IPLC lands. Together, they are home to over 300 Indigenous groups whose lands are currently threatened by over-development, mining, and agri-business. For each of the four countries, the authors examined past and existing nationally determined contributions and related documents, conducted a geospatial analysis to examine carbon sequestration and emissions on IPLC lands, and assessed the extent to which IPLCs lands are protected by national laws and policies. This analysis was used to develop a set of actionable recommendations for governments in the four countries, many of which are also relevant to governments in other forest countries with significant IPLC populations.

Feeling the Heat: Adapting to Climate Change in the Middle East and Central Asia, Duenwald et al., International Monetary Fund

Climate change is among humanity’s greatest challenges, and the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA) region is on the frontlines of its human, physical, and economic ramifications. Much of the region lies in already harsh climate zones, where global warming exacerbates desertification, water stress, and rising sea levels. This trend entails deep economic disruptions, endangers food security, and undermines public health—with ripple effects on poverty, inequality, displacement, and conflict. While recognition of these challenges is high in the ME&CA region, with nearly two-thirds of its population perceiving climate change as a global emergency, decisive and broad-based action has yet to follow. The paper is the first to highlight macro-critical climate adaptation challenges for the ME&CA region. Leveraging a newly assembled comprehensive data base on climate and macro-financial indicators, the paper derives novel climate risk profiles and empirical evidence to underpin its central message: adapting to climate change—by boosting resilience to innate climate stresses—is a critical priority for ME&CA economies. Concretely, the paper answers four questions: (1) What are the region’s key climate challenges? (2) How does climate change affect the region’s economies, development, and stability? (3) What public policies can boost climate resilience, including in the near term? (4) What are these policies’ implied financing needs, and what sources exist to meet them? The paper’s insights can help policymakers devise country-specific adaptation plans as part of wholistic climate strategies that also include mitigation and transition risk management.

Forests to Faucets 2.0. Connecting Forests, Water, and Communities, Mack et al., U.S. Forest Service

The authors use geospatial modeling to identify watersheds that are most important to surface drinking water, the ability to produce clean water, forest ownership (public or private), and potential threats to water yield from insects and diseases, wildfire, land use or climate change. Results, presented by U.S. Forest Service regions indicate that watersheds in the Eastern, Southern, and Pacific Southwest regions were most important for surface drinking water. Watersheds in the Southern, Pacific Northwest, and Pacific Southwest regions had the highest ability to produce clean water based on the five biophysical characteristics evaluated. The Pacific Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and Northern regions had the most watersheds at the highest threat of wildfire as well as the most watersheds at the highest threat of insects and disease. For all future climate and population growth scenarios, the Southern, Pacific Southwest, and Eastern regions had the most watersheds at the highest threat of land use change, while the Pacific Northwest and Southern regions had the most watersheds at the highest threat of decreases in water yield because of climate change. 


Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light”  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

What does (provisional link)” mean?

When the input list for New Research is processed, some articles do not produce a result from the journal databases we employ. Usually this is because the publisher has not yet supplied information to doi.org for the given article. In these cases and in order to still include timely listing of articles, we employ an alternate search tactic. While this method is usually correct, sometimes the link shown will lead to an incorrect destination (available time does not always permit manual checking of these). We invite readers to submit corrections in comments below.

Each edition of New Research is reprocessed some two weeks after intitial publication to catch stragglers into the DOI ecosystem. Many “provisional links” will end up being corrected as part of this process. 

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Journals covered

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Previous edition

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