Changes afoot: is the “reign” of the super-anticyclone faltering?
The month of February will begin with some changes, since the anticyclonic ridge will tend to weaken. Will it be something temporary? Will the expected rains and snowfalls finally arrive? Here we tell you.
The month of January says goodbye with clear skies in much of the country, as usual in recent weeks due to the persistent anticyclonic blockade that prevents the arrival of storms. In recent days, rain and snow have only made an appearance in the Canary Islands, Andalusia and in some areas of the southeast of the peninsula.
The drought is beginning to be very worrying in Catalonia and in the Guadalquivir and Guadiana basins. For now, everything indicates that we will have to wait for another week to talk about a situation of general and abundant rainfall, although it seems that the anticyclone will give way momentarily in the first days of February.
The week begins with rainfall in the Pyrenees
Today there will be small changes. The anticyclone will move to the east, and the wind will shift to the north on the Cantabrian slope and in the Pyrenees. in these areas precipitation is expected, with a snow level that will drop to 800 meters. The rains and snow will reach the Iberian north, although in a more scattered way.
Gusts will exceed 100 km/h in high areas of the Pyrenees and in mountainous areas of the northeast. Temperatures will drop in the north, while in points of the Valencian Community, Region of Murcia and Andalusia they will reach 25 ºC. The haze will remain in the Canary Islands and in the southwest.
Tomorrow the precipitation will withdraw from the north as the hours go by. In the rest, the anticyclonic environment will predominate, with daytime temperatures that will drop in the south, and will do so significantly in the southeast. The wind will continue to pick up in the Pyrenees, northeast and Menorca. Frost will be weak indoors, with minimums that will drop to -2 ºC in Teruel or Soria.
Later, pleasant weather in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands… with snow in the Canary Islands!
On Wednesday the anticyclonic dorsal will be located on the peninsular vertical, and the most significant will be the rising daytime values, with maximums that will approach or exceed 20ºC in many capitals in the interior and south, and even in parts of Andalusia and the southeast they could reach 25º. But nevertheless, the night will be colder, with records of up to -6 ºC in Teruel or -4 in Burgos and Soria. Fog banks will form in the valleys.
However, With the advance of a trough through the Atlantic, the downpours will return to the Canary Islands, being locally intense in the western islands. In addition, the snow will fall again on Teide, where they have already had several snowfalls in recent weeks.
Thursday we will have a somewhat indefinite situation, with high pressures on the surface but with the dorsal in retreat. The showers will tend to go less in the Canary archipelago, while in the last hours it could rain lightly in Galicia. Temperatures will drop in the west and rise in the north and on the Mediterranean coast, where they will exceed 20ºC. Again mists will appear in the valleys.
Until when is the anticyclonic ridge withdrawn?
According to our reference model, the HRES-IFS of the ECMWF, taking advantage of the void left by the dorsal, could come down towards the weekend one DANA in the peninsular environment, which would leave some showers. However, for now no prospect of major rain or snow storms, since in the short and medium term blocking or NAO+ situations will continue to predominate (storms circulating at very high latitudes).