Analyzing and evaluating the risk
This lesson shows the aspects of risk and risk assessment to consider when implementing an impact-based forecasting approach in a weather office.
Analyzing and Evaluating Risk
About this lesson
This lesson shows aspects of risk and risk assessment to consider when implementing an impact-based forecasting (IBP) approach in a meteorological office.
You are in charge of writing the forecast in the fictional country of Tiziki, where PBI’s approach is being adopted for the first time. After a description of the different parts of the risk matrices, you will learn to evaluate each of them by the impact tables and in light of their knowledge of the local effects. Your goal is to prepare two different forecasts with risk matrices based on the same hazard covering both regions of interest.
TOPICS Emergency Management, Hydrology/Floods, Convective Meteorology, Mesoscale Meteorology, Other Topics
STUDY TIME 1.00 – 1.25 h
PUBLICATION DATE January 13, 2022
- Define the concept of risk
- Identify and evaluate the components of a risk matrix in order to determine the risk category
– Identify the difference between hazards and impacts
– Use a hit table to identify the hit category
– Understand the probability of impact
- Interpret and assess the difference in risk between:
– Different exposure and vulnerability conditions given the same threat conditions;
– Or, several areas under the same threat conditions
- Identify other considerations that affect risk communications
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