May 18, 2022 6:19 pm

Have the snowfalls of this winter ended? This is what the models say

Victor Gonzalez 5 min
In many of our mountain ranges, snow has not made an appearance, in abundance, for weeks.

Synoptically speaking, the current situation does not differ much from that of previous days. The anticyclonic blockade persists in western Europe and has not moved in recent weeks, with this, temperatures are still very normal for this time of year, in fact this weekend it will even be cold in much of the territory. The warm air masses remain far to the south and the powerful anticyclone, centered on the British Isles, allows fresh mid-level air masses to enter and, on the other hand, the Peninsula generates its own cold continental air mass.

This weekend there will be strong frosts, probably more intense than the ones we have had so far.

This will lead to locally strong frosts during this weekend, Probably more intense than the ones we have had so far, with temperatures slightly recovering again for next Monday, although they are still wintery. The next week will pass with that equally strong blocking anticyclone centered just to the north of the peninsula and the models do not support another scenario as possible until well into February.

Both the GFS model and ours of trust, the European (IFS-ECMWF), agree that with the change of month this blockade will tend to weaken. Initially zonal circulation at higher latitudes would be restored and blockage would shift south. This means that the anticyclone would place us right on the vertical and then give way to a completely normal period of uncertainty given the time frames to which we are moving, in which a positive NAO scenario would be quite likely.

Weaker blockade and high zonal circulation in Europe

The most likely scenario for the beginning of February is, therefore, that of a strong zonal circulation in northern Europe and an anticyclonic environment in the southr. Later, the main options contemplated by the European model focus mainly on a persistence of the zonal circulation or a return to the blockage pattern, but does this mean that there is no forecast of snowfall or significant precipitation this winter?

It does not necessarily have to be that way, in fact there is too much winter ahead to be able to say such a thing. Keep in mind that the factors that can trigger an episode of rainfall on the Peninsula depend on weather systems that are impossible to predict in the long term.

There is too much winter ahead to say that the snowfalls will not return, but it is safe to say that February will start with equally stable weather.

It is safe to say that, with the current forecast, the most likely scenario during the beginning of February is that of stable weather and night frosts, in case the blockage persists. Only if an intense positive NAO pattern is established, precipitation could appear on the Atlantic slope, although quite restricted outside that area.

The European model, given the greater probability of these scenarios, shows a high probability that the first few weeks of February will be slightly cooler than normal but with relatively little precipitation. Scenario that must be monitored due to the prolonged absence of rainfall that is taking place in large areas of the Iberian Peninsula. After all, neither of these two predicted circulation patterns are particularly conducive to bringing rain to this region of Europe.

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