Rains in the agricultural area: the millimeters that have fallen are still not enough to stop the deterioration of early corn and soybeans
During the weekend the rains began in the central agricultural area with records ranging from five millimeters to more than 40 mm. However, the rains that have fallen are still not enough to stop the deterioration of early corn and first-class soybeans that are going through their critical period. For this, according to specialists, it is required at least 50 millimeters to fall.
Cristian Russo, head of BCR estimates, in dialogue with LA NACION explained: “To start recovering the crops An event was needed that is homogeneous, that reaches the entire Pampas region and that leaves a base of 50 millimeters. That is to say, that it be massive and not something micro like what happened last weekend when some areas had more than 30-40 mm and others were left without water”.
“The rainfall forecast continues until at least Wednesday; therefore, there are still possibilities to reach that mark to start leaving behind all this enormous lack of water”, he added.
According to the data provided by the director of the INTA Natural Resources Research Center, Pablo Mercuri, the last three days in the province of Santa Fe, it rained 30 mm in Rosario and 10 mm in Santa Rosa, in the north of the province; in the province of Buenos Aires it rained in Pigüé, 10 mm; ,Olavarria, 15mm; Mar del Plata, 15mm; Flowers. 15mm; Blue. 30mm; Dolores, 28mm; Junin. 11 mm: Tandil, 17 mm and Tres Arroyos, 12 mm; in Entre Ríos, in Paraná, 40 mm, and in Gualeguaychú, 37 mm. In Córdoba, in Villa Dolores, 22 mm fell; in Laboulaye 35mm; in Marcos Juárez, 12 mm and Córdoba, 13 mm.
While today during the day isolated and in some cases intense rains and showers continued in central areas of Córdoba, Santa Fé, Entre Ríos, Sur de Corrientes and in the NOA.
“Starting tonight, events are expected in all the Pampas provinces. This will continue seven five or seven more days. From there, it will be possible to more accurately estimate the areas that recover their normal water status and, meanwhile, survey the crops that recover and the damage to crops affected by the heat wave and the drought,” said the meteorologist.
Meanwhile, for Andrés Paterniti, a crop analyst at the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange, in the most compromised areas, which are the Center-North and south of Santa Fe, Center-North of Córdoba, north of Buenos Aires and the Center -East of Entre Rios, It requires that it rains between 60 and 80 mm to, on the one hand, stop the deterioration of early corn and soybeans, which are going through their critical period, and on the other, so that late corn and second-class soybeans can have enough moisture for the next 20 days.
Although he clarified that the required volumes will vary according to the zone because they all have a different soil condition and property.
Strictly speaking, Paterniti specified that 51.5% of the early corn area is going through critical stages for the definition of yields, which, with respect to total corn, would be equivalent to 26.4% of the area sown to date. While, on the soybean side, 13% of the first crops are in their critical period and at the level of the total area of soybean planted to date, that would be equivalent to 8.5%”.
“Late corn and soybeans of second as they go through very early vegetative stages, either between four to five leaves, crop requirements are not important in terms of moisture. However, we are receiving some reports of the season given that they are planting for second-class soybeans and some replanting is even expected, taking advantage of the moisture courses this week,” he said.
“Now we have to wait for the next few weeks, which are going to be quite decisive in what is the campaign for early crops, and also wait for what is going to be the month of February to see if this resumption of humidity pulses keeps or if it is just a recreation of what we have been suffering for two months, “he concluded.
Regarding the prospects, the meteorologist Leonardo De Benedictis remarks that there is still a whole week to go in which there will be rains of varying intensity, although he predicted: “Optimal rain conditions are not expected in February either. In general, a rainfall situation below average levels is expected.
Although he clarified that the drought is not going to be as extreme as it was in the first fortnight of January, he commented: “In any case, we are talking about a situation that is far from being optimal conditions for that month.”
Last week, the Rosario Stock Exchange applied cuts to its estimates. Corn, instead of having a volume of 56 million tons, as was estimated in September, would have 48 million tons. In turn, soybeans would reach 40 million tons, five million less than those projected last December. This implies that some US$2.6 billion would stop entering the country, 10% less than what was calculated by the entity last December. In addition, the decrease in State income would be US$1,440 million due to the drop in tax collection.
In this context, in several provinces, the declaration of an agricultural emergency was requested. In Buenos Aires, Together for Change presented a draft declaration in the Buenos Aires legislature and the Argentine Rural Society, Entre Ríos district, requested it before Governor Gustavo Bordet.
Last Saturday, the Minister of Agriculture, Julián Domínguez, toured the fields of Entre Ríos and Santa Fe and met with producers to assess the impact of the lack of rain. He also met with the ministers of both provinces, Gustavo Bordet and Omar Perotti, respectively, with whom he evaluated the possibility of implementing aid measures for those affected.
The official said that the amount of the agricultural emergency fund, which has been unchanged since 2009, could be updated by $500 million.