The PP surpasses the entire left and touches the absolute majority in Castilla y León
Less than four weeks before the regional elections in Castilla y León, the PP would be close to an absolute majority in the regional courts, and would add more prosecutors than the entire left put together, a key fact in these elections, because in this way Vox would lose political weight in future negotiations. According to the latest GAD3 barometer for ABC on the February 13 elections, the PP faces the campaign with a vote estimate that exceeds the 40 percent barrier, a percentage within the reach of very few in current politics.
In the Madrid elections on May 4, Ayuso’s candidacy reached 44.76 percent of the votes, with 65 deputies, four
less than necessary for an absolute majority, although it added seven more than all the leftists. That data allowed him to govern alone, with specific support from Vox.
In Castilla y León the same pattern can be repeated. This past weekend, in León, Ayuso claimed his victory as a decisive step to end Sánchez’s “nightmare”, and urged Mañueco to take the witness to strengthen the PP in that objective. With the GAD3 barometer in hand, the PP of Castilla y León is going down that path.
Steak and taverns
The barometer was carried out from January 10 to 14, with 1,089 interviews in the nine provinces of Castilla y León. The controversy over Minister Alberto Garzón’s ‘steak’ was at its peak, and if the data is compared with that recorded in December, it can be seen how has punished the PSOE in a special way, which has dropped seven tenths in just one month, while United We Can has gained 1.1 points.
The PP admits that Garzón’s attack on farmers, for the “poor quality meat” that Spain exports, as stated in a British newspaper, has been a “gift” at the beginning of the pre-campaign in a region such as Castilla y León. And he has tried to make the most of it, as happened in Madrid with the controversy over the ‘taverns’, another gift from the left. Since last month, popular have risen 1.6 points in Castilla y León, to stand at an estimated vote of 40.8 percentnt, with 38-39 deputies, in a Parliament where the absolute majority stands at 41 deputies or attorneys.
The growth of the PP compared to the last regional elections may explain why Mañueco was so sure when it came to calling the polls. In May 2019, it was second only to the PSOE, with 31.5 percent and 29 seats. He was only able to govern thanks to a coalition pact with Ciudadanos, which Genoa was in charge of. According to the estimate made by GAD3, the PP would now be one point away from reaching an absolute majority in this region.
Ciudadanos is one step away from being left with an empty box in the elections. Mañueco’s relationship with his former vice president, Francisco Igea, is broken and without any possibility of being fixed, after the accusations between the two when the elections were called. Ciudadanos, who achieved 14.9 percent of the vote in May 2019, with 12 regional deputies, would now fall to 2.6 percent, and his forecast fluctuates between zero and a single deputy, which would be that of Igea for Valladolid, if it manages to pass the 5 percent barrier in that constituency.
With Ciudadanos out of the game, the PP would have to look to Vox to reach an absolute majority. Abascal’s party, with Juan García-Gallardo as a candidate, soars since the May 2019 elections, going from 5.5 percent of the votes, and a single deputy, to an estimate of 13.1 percent, with nine. Of course, in the last month, in which it has practically disappeared in the meat controversy until just a few days ago, Vox goes back four tenths in its evolution.
The nine deputies of Vox would place this party as third regional political formation. But if the PP adds more votes than the entire left, Mañueco would have enough strength to govern alone, as is his wish and that of Genoa, with specific support from Abascal’s party. Vox would achieve a seat in all the provinces, except in Soria, and in Valladolid it obtains two.
On the left, the PSOE would now obtain 29.1 percent of the vote, with 27-28 attorneys in a Cortes with 81 seats. Since the regional elections of May 2019 has lost more than five voting points, and in the last month it has gone back again. He could lose up to eight of the deputies he won at the polls two and a half years ago.
The Socialists have been overwhelmed by the meat controversy in recent weeks, while their government partner did not hesitate to raise the flag of environmentalism. Sánchez was forced to curb criticism of his Minister of Consumer Affairs to prevent further wear, while part of the radical left saw a reason to make United We Can grow in vote estimation. In the 2019 elections, Podemos and Izquierda Unida added 7.3 percent of the vote. Now, as United We Can, they would be at 6 percent and could obtain between two and three deputies.
The PSOE and United We Can add between 29 and 31 prosecutors, compared to 38 or 39 of the Popular Party. The left would not surpass the party of Mañueco and Casado even if it added the seats of the local parties to its bloc.
The expectations of the virtual platform of the ‘Spain emptied’ were high until December, but at this point it is obvious that the calling of the elections surprised them without their homework done. The result is that, according to the GAD3 barometer, they would only achieve representation ‘Soria ya’, with a single deputy in its constituency, and Unión del Pueblo Leonés, with two seats.
In the barometer, respondents are asked if they consider that the regional elections of February 13 in Castilla y León are more important than those that were called in May 2019 or not. The PP voters give much more relevance to these elections than those of the PSOE: 52 percent of popular voters believe that the 13-F elections will be more important than those of 2019, while in the case of the PSOE it drops to 32 percent.
The ‘winter general’
One of the keys to elections may be participation. Elections will be held in the dead of winter, and the factor of time can directly influence the participation and therefore in the result. However, it is expected that within four weeks the sixth wave of coronavirus will have already passed its peak and will not be decisive. A low turnout could favor United We Can more.