May 17, 2022 8:53 am

Caixabank Research forecasts that tourism GDP will still be 18% below pre-pandemic levels




Tourism lives in the pandemic a continuous ‘déjà vu’ of ups and downs. The continuous waves of coronavirus delay its full recovery, which, as reported by ABC, the sector already calls for 2023. A vision that Caixabank Research also shares. The study service of the banking entity foresees that the tourist activity will grow this year 51%, but it will still be 18% below pre-pandemic levels, according to a report seen by ABC.

The important growth of the activity in this 2022 will be clouded at the beginning of the year. According to Caixabank Research, these first months are expected to be negative, as always when the incidence of the virus grows in Spain.

Even so, they believe that “once this wave stabilizes, it is conceivable that the sector will return to the path of recovery that it had been registering until last November. Looking ahead to 2022 as a whole, we remain optimistic and hope that improve appreciably the figures for 2021, despite the high uncertainty that remains today.

One of the points that play in favor of tourism this 2022 is the high level of vaccination that exists in Spain, which will cause the impact of the sixth wave to be less than the previous ones. In this way, despite the tumultuous start of the course, the Caixabank research service expects that “the stabilization of the pandemic during the spring season and the recovery of dynamism in the summer months will boost tourism GDP to a level of 82 % compared to 2019, with an annual growth of 51%. In other words, the main activity of the Spanish economy would settle at 2016 levels.

Apart from the complicated start to the year, a feature that will mark the entire year 2022 will be the recovery at different speeds of international tourists. Thus, while traditional markets (UK, France, Germany, Nordic countries) are expected to grow fast this year, the same will not happen with long-haul countries. In this sense, the Asian countries stand out, with very severe restrictions due to the pandemic.

Overall, according to Caixabank Research, spending by international tourists will grow by 92% and stand at around 70% of the level of spending in 2019. In turn, spending by Spanish tourists will continue to grow this year due to the uncertainty of being able to travel outside normally. Thus, it is expected that the spending of the Spanish will even exceed the levels of 2019.

With regard to employment and the viability of companies, Caixabank’s research service reflects the importance of extend the ERTE scheme during this year. In addition, he points out that the SEPI fund of 10,000 million for strategic companies continues to grant aid for “the stability of key tourism companies.”

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