May 18, 2022 8:55 pm

Will there be a big winter squall before the end of January?

Jose Antonio Maldonado 4 min
January 2021 was historic due to Filomena and the subsequent cold wave, but according to forecasts for the remainder of January a quite different panorama awaits us.

Last year at this time in much of Spain we were under the effects of the storm of great impact called Filomena, which produced large and persistent snowfalls (between January 6 and 10) at relatively low levels, especially in the center and east of the Peninsula, as well as strong winds and very low temperatures that remained until the 17th.

The extreme records Filomena left us

The snow thicknesses that were measured are striking in La Pobla de Cérvoles (Lleida), with 63 centimeters, or in Cavacés (Tarragona), where 57.4 centimeters were reached. The half meter was also exceeded in the Roque de los Muchachos (Santa Cruz de Tenerife), with 56 centimeters, Madrid (Retiro) 52.9, Toledo 51 or Vilafranca (Castellón), where they were around half a meter.

Regarding the lowest minimum temperatures, the -26.5 ºC stood out in Torremocha del Jiloca (Teruel), in Bello (Teruel) -25.4 ºC, and in Molina de Aragón (Guadalajara) -25.2 ºC, although in other stations not approved by Aemet of the Picos de Europa and the Lleida Pyrenees, even lower values ​​were registered.

We have to go back to the first days of January 1971 to find a storm of this magnitude, although at that time they were not called high impact nor were they named.

Taking into account that a similar event had not occurred in fifty years and, above all, what the different models show, the probability can be considered practically nil.

What could happen in the second half of January?

Temperatures will be low in almost the entire Peninsula and in the Balearic Islands during the entire fortnight with frosts in almost the entire interior, although until the 24th the exceptions will be the western half of Andalusia, the Mediterranean coast and western Galicia, where the thermometric values ​​will also be below normal. Of course, The Canary Islands, as almost always, will enjoy a much softer environment with maximums slightly higher than 20 ºC and minimums around 16 or 17 ºC.

According to the ECMWF, during the second fortnight the high pressures will continue around the British Isles.

In the following week the frosts will continue to occur in almost the entire territory, and some, although weak, may be registered in southwestern capitals such as Seville and Córdoba. Given the anticyclonic situation, what yes it is foreseeable is forming numerous banks of fog that may be persistent in some areas, mainly on the Castilian-Leon plateau.

In the second fortnight, the anticyclonic environment will predominate, with frosts and fogs inside. Rainfall will be scarce.

As for rainfall, it will be very scarce. If some occur in the remainder of the month, they will be isolated and of little intensity. The highest probabilities will correspond to the Pyrenees. It could also rain lightly in the north of the Canary archipelago.

Comments (0)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.