Dancing with the bear
Are we going to another great war with Russia? ”They ask me. “They are already in Kazakhstan,” I usually reply. “I mean Ukraine,” they already seriously warn. “It depends,” I say resignedly. “That’s not an answer,” already a bit angry. “Okay, but it’s reality”, and I am about to explain: “It depends on what both Russians and Western Europeans are willing to risk.
It is clear that Vladimir Putin wants a seat belt around his immense borders. That is to say, a kind of mattress that isolates him from any military, economic and political interference.
It should not be forgotten that throughout its history Russia has been invaded from the East, where the most important tribes came from.
fierce path of the Mediterranean paradise, Attila the most famous, and from the West, being the target of the most audacious dictators, Napoleon, Hitler. For this he used the Asian Soviet republics and the satellite states in Europe.
The fall of the Berlin Wall freed the latter, who are today members of the European Union, or try to be, Ukraine the most, with Putin’s reaction to occupying Crimea and supporting the pro-independence activists of the majority Russian minority in the East of the country, something that Kiev strongly opposes, giving rise to friction on that border that have made NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg say that “there is a real risk of conflict. Ukraine is not an ally, but it is a valuable partner. ‘
Military actions are not foreseen, since Russia has just sent 100,000 soldiers there, but tough economic and diplomatic sanctions are threatened, depending on the Russian interference in Ukraine. Which in turn will depend on the extent to which Europe and the United States are willing to puncture the insulating mattress around Russia. I don’t think that both Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin are interested in tightening the rope so much that it ends up breaking, because what could break would be their noses. But when national honor is involved, anything can happen.
The case of Kazakhstan, although it belongs to the same chapter and a good part of the population would like to let go of Moscow, there sends a follower of Soviet doctrine and methods, who calls terrorists those who ask for full independence and has ordered to shoot to kill the protesters. Apart from staying too far to help you. But he warns Putin that the desire for freedom runs through all belts.
In other words, it all depends on how you dance with the Russian bear.