Coronavirus in Valencia: the Generalitat warns that the epidemic is not controlled and alerts of the start of a new wave
The Department of Universal Health and Public Health warns that the epidemic of coronavirus“Is not controlled” in the Valencian Community, since all the indicators “are getting worse” and suggest that “in all probability, we are at the beginning of a new epidemic wave.”
This is reflected in the latest report of the General Sub-Directorate of Epidemiology, Health Surveillance and Environmental Sanitation, of the General Directorate of Public Health and Addictions, dated November 22, 2021 and published this Friday in the DOGV, which shows that the epidemic curve shows a “sustained and widespread” growth.
Specifically, the study, which justifies the implementation of the covid passport in the Valencian Community from midnight on Friday to Saturday, December 4 on the eve of the festivities of Christmas and New Years Eve, concludes that the current evolution of the pandemic shows “an increase in the risk of transmission” and that the epidemic curve indicates “an upward trend with sustained and generalized growth that is indicating that we are facing a new wave.”
[Listado de municipios de la Comunidad Valenciana en riesgo extremo de transmisión del coronavirus]
Thus, as of November 22, the evolution of the instantaneous basic reproductive number is above one, which means that the epidemic “is not controlled”. The overall percentage of positivity in acute infection diagnostic tests also increased, standing at 8.36 percent compared to 3.04 in the previous report. The proportion of confirmed cases among cases with mild symptoms that attend Primary Care is around thirty percent, while on October 4 it was at ten.
In this way, Health not only confirms that all the transmission level indicators “have worsened and that no sign of improvement is observed”, but quite the contrary, they suggest that the level of circulation of SARS-CoV-2 «will continue to increase and the number of cases will continue to increase ”.
At this time, the risk assessment assigns for the level of transmission, medium risk or alert two, although at hospital level the risk level is kept low due to the effectiveness of vaccination. For this reason, it assigns the Community a low risk level or one alert given that the implementation of non-pharmacological measures is related to the overflow of the health system, especially hospital services, and at this time these indicators should outweigh the risk of transmission.
Health explains this current situation of the pandemic in which, according to all the studies carried out, the complete vaccination schedule “protects against serious disease and mortality, but its ability to prevent transmission is inferior.” Still, these reports show that the risk of becoming infected is lower among the vaccinated than in the unvaccinated and that the transmission of Covid-19 it is also less.
Specifically, after the predominance of the variant Delta, in the study carried out by Public Health England have quantified that complete vaccination is 60 to 85 percent effective against infection, 90 to 99% against hospitalization, 90 to 95% against mortality and 65 to 99% against infection. symptomatic disease.
On the other hand, in the study carried out by Anika Singanayagam and collaborators, aimed at knowing the community transmission of vaccinated and unvaccinated people with mild delta variant infection, they conclude that current vaccines are still effective to prevent serious illness and death from Covid-19 but that vaccination alone “is not enough” to prevent all transmission, especially in settings where exposure is close and prolonged.