Global warming accelerates the frequency of hot extremes and rainfall
The frequency of warm extremes and record temperature values and precipitation It has increased in the world as a consequence of global warming, according to an international investigation led by the Complutense University of Madrid (UCM), in which the Institute of Geosciences (CSIC-UCM) participates.
At least one in four new precipitation records is caused by climate change
The study, published in the journal npj Climate and Atmosphere Science, estimates that the occurrence of record temperatures is eight times higher than would be expected without global warming, and that at least one in four new records of precipitation is caused by the climate change.
“Although the observed changes in global temperature are apparently small, over 0.2ºC per decade, they have produced a disproportionate increase in the frequency of extremes. Its unusual amplitude would have been impossible without anthropogenic global warming, “he says. Alexander Robinson, researcher at the Department of Earth Sciences and Astrophysics of the UCM and the IGEO (CSIC-UCM).
Another of the study’s conclusions is that tropical regions, which include vulnerable countries with a lower rate of responsibility for global warming, are those that experience the greatest increases in these extremes.
“The information obtained makes it possible to monitor the effects caused by global warming and maintain the level of public awareness of this problem. Furthermore, regional analyzes are useful as an informative and support tool for climate change negotiations between different countries ”, Robinson emphasizes.
To conduct the study, the researchers analyzed observations of mean monthly temperature and daily precipitation at ground stations around the globe to determine the historical frequency of extreme events of different magnitudes and of record events on a global and regional scale. These results were compared with the expected evolution in a stationary climate, without climate change.
We can affirm that the occurrence of record events in recent decades is unprecedented in the instrumental record
“We can affirm that the occurrence of record events in recent decades is unprecedented in the instrumental record, and their frequency increases with global warming. The changes experienced are not only incompatible with a decarbonized world, but are in line with predictions based on the observed rate of global warming ”, he adds David Barriopedro, IGEO researcher.
In addition to the UCM and IGEO, the study involves the Potsdam Institute for Research on the Impact of Climate Change, the University of Potsdam, the Free University of Amsterdam and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.
Alexander Robinson et al. “Increasing heat and rainfall extremes now far outside the historical climate” e.gj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Rights: Creative Commons.